California Birth Rate Declines in June

California live births dropped 6.4% in June 2022 compared to June of 2021.

Igor Chudov provided a chart of year-on-year change in live births, by month.

“It shows changes in live births for the same months spaced a year ago,” Chudov wrote.

“For example, change in California live births, comparing June of 2021 to June of 2022, is a drop of -6.4%.”

*Source – Igor Chudov*

“This follows on the heel of birth rate drops in Germany, Taiwan, Switzerland, UK, Sweden, Hungary, and more,” Chudov added.

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Chudov explained further:

Clearly, 2022 started out as a banner year in California, with January 2022 births increasing 7.88% compared to January of 2021. (remember the 2020 lockdown causing the 2021 drop, from which 2022 rebounded) However, you can see that after that, year-on-year birth rate change started declining, dropping by 14% from +7.88% to -6.4% decline in June. The California chart looks similar to the Germany chart. Both of those showed rapid decline in birth rates:

*Source - Igor Chudov*

If you want to examine it, California data is available from two sources: the 1960-2020 monthly series, and provisional 2021-2022 series.

What caused this birth rate drop? We cannot, obviously, definitively answer that since it just began to happen. We can only examine clues, for now, and need to start paying close attention.

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Astute readers may ask: since California is a heavily vaccinated state, how come their birth rate reductions in June were lesser in magnitude (6%) than for other similarly heavily vaccinated countries (10+%)? It is a very important question.

The answer may lie in California’s demographics. Whites in California comprise 36% of the population, but only give 28% of births. Hispanics represent 39% of the population, but give 46% of births in California. Thus, the birthrate among Hispanics is about 50% higher than among whites.

*Source - Igor Chudov*

It is well known that the vaccine rollout was initially much more successful around whites and Asians, whereas black and Hispanic people were quite hesitant to get vaccinated in the beginning. Take a look at California vaccination rate by ethnicity for Aug 2021. You can see that on Aug 1 2021, whites 18-49 were 60.2% vaccinated, but Latinos of the same age were only 46% vaccinated. The blacks were only 41% vaccinated and they also have higher birth rates than whites. So, the higher-birth-giving ethnicities were much less vaccinated, likely even more so among younger women intending to get pregnant soon. That could explain why California, by Jun 2022, is seeing significant reductions in birth rates that are nevertheless somewhat lower than what we saw in, say, Sweden or Germany.

Read the full report from Igor Chudov HERE.