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Good news my friends….President Trump has a clear path to 270 electoral votes and the election win!
Actually, it's better than that.
He has MULTIPLE paths.
I don't want you to think it's in the bag or that you can rest easy, we have three more days to fight hard and make sure you VOTE no matter what!
But I do want to share the good news to encourage you.
We've got this!
A big shout out to Dan Bongino and team for this excellent analysis:
Here is a portion of that analysis from Bongino:
The left has tried to convince Americans for four years that President Trump is evil, unhinged, rude, crude and unfit for the presidency. They have tried to destroy him over and over again, but every time they think they’ve got him, he slips out of their grasp. This year, Democrats have weaponized the pandemic, the lockdowns and the deep economic recession against him. Yet, despite their perpetual pursuit, it remains entirely possible that he may win a second term. The President has a very clear and achievable path to victory.
Trump starts off with the following reliably red states: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (4), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Utah (6), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3). These states contribute 125 electoral votes to the Trump column.
We’ll add Florida (29) to the list. On Friday, I reported that the number of Republicans who have cast early votes in Miami-Dade County, the bluest county in the state, had topped 6.4 percent. As of Saturday, that figure had surpassed 9 percent leading one Democratic operative to say, “We’ve got to stop the bleeding.” In 2016, Trump trailed Hillary Clinton by 300,000 votes in this county and still defeated her in the state.
We can add Georgia (16) to the list as well.
Arizona (11) belongs on this list. Trump is drawing a larger share of the Latino vote (in addition to the black vote) in 2020 than he did in 2016. The Washington Post published a lengthy piece in September which featured a group of small business owners in the Copper State who support President Trump. They’re happy with his administration’s tax cuts, deregulation and pro-life platform. They also resent the Democrats’ obsession with identity politics.
One resident, a business owner, told the Post, “It infuriates me that the government puts me in a box and calls me a Latino or a Hispanic or minority female. It doesn’t work for me, because I am no different than other Americans in terms of the things that interest me: to be able to put food on my table, to have a job.”
She added, “Most Latinos here, we are all in the same boat, especially the ones coming from Mexico like me. We are luchadores, entrepreneurs, we fight for what we want. We just want to be left alone, and the government to let markets flow.”
As for Texas (38) turning blue, that doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Forbes Magazine reports a divergence between the polls and the breakdown by party affiliation of early voters. This is similar to what’s been happening in Dade County, Florida. According to Forbes:
As of Oct. 29, NBC News has analyzed Texas’ early and by mail voting through Oct. 26, finding that 54% of those voting early are Republican vs. 36% Democrat and 10% other or unknown. This gives the Republicans up to an 18% lead in early voting in Texas, or 8% if all the unknown and first-time voters are assigned to the Democrats.
Trump was projected to win Ohio (18) by 3.5 percent in 2016. He won the state by an 8.1 percent margin. The current Real Clear Politics average of the polls in the state shows a tie. Trump leads by 4 in the most recent Trafalgar Group poll and by 3 in the latest Fox News survey. And we all know that Fox polling hasn’t been kind to the President this year. Neither poll incorporates the impact of Biden’s monumental gaffe during the final debate when he said he planned to “transition” the U.S. out of fossil fuels by 2035.
Even the left-leaning polling group Quinnipiac, whose results are very often the outlier, has Trump up by a point in the state of Iowa (6). The final RCP average in 2016 showed Trump ahead by 3 points and he wound up winning the state by a 9.5 percent margin.
The influential Des Moines Register has endorsed Biden, just as they endorsed Clinton in 2016.
Maine and Nebraska are the only two states to split up their electoral votes. Trump is expected to win at least four of Nebraska’s five electoral votes. He may even win one of Maine’s electoral votes.
The addition of these states brings Trump’s total to 247 electoral votes, leaving him just 23 electoral votes away from the presidency.
There are a number of ways he can fill this gap. Various combinations of the following states could easily put him up and over this threshold.
Trump stands a good chance of winning North Carolina (15). Just ahead of the 2016 election, the RCP polling average showed him with a one point advantage over Clinton. He won the state by 3.7 points.
Trump is currently trailing Biden by 1.2 percent, however Trafalgar shows Trump ahead by 3 and Rasmussen shows him up by one. Two other polls, neither of which are right leaning, predict a tie. I believe Trump has a good chance to carry North Carolina again.
Pennsylvania (20) could go either way. Trump has campaigned very aggressively in the state. In fact, his campaign held four rallies in Pennsylvania on Saturday.
Biden’s tone deaf remark about the oil industry during the debate will no doubt hurt him with voters in this state as well.
Last Saturday, Dan Bongino aired a Special Election podcast in which he interviewed Trafalgar’s Robert Cahaly (referenced above).
Cahaly told Dan that, although he thought Trump would actually receive more votes in Pennsylvania than Biden, he didn’t believe his margin would be sufficient to overcome the voter fraud which the state has become notorious for.
Earlier last week (October 20), Cahaly told Fox News’ Sean Hannity Trump would have to win the state by a four to five point margin to make up for this fraud.
Both Dan’s and Sean Hannity’s interviews with Cahaly occurred before the final debate meaning that Biden’s unfortunate remark had not been factored into their conversations.
Frankly, I think Trump stands a good chance of winning Pennsylvania.
Lord knows the President has put a lot of time into winning Michigan (10). He has three more rallies planned in the state on Sunday and Monday. President Obama campaigned with Biden in Michigan on Saturday.
Trump won Michigan in 2016 by a razor sharp margin despite Clinton’s 6.4 percent lead. Biden is currently ahead by 6.5 points.
Some analysts believe Trump has a chance to flip Minnesota this year. The last Republican to win this state was President Nixon in 1972. Trump came within 1.5 percent, or 45,000 votes, of victory in 2016. Clinton had been ahead by 6.2 percent prior to Election Day. Trump currently trails Biden by 4.7 percent.
Read the entire report here on Bongino.
Dan isn't the only one saying it.
Fox News has a different route to 270 for Trump:
From Fox News:
President Trump has a clear path to the 270 electoral votes he needs for reelection — and the map is not dissimilar to his historic 306-vote Electoral College landslide in 2016.
I believe the president will carry Texas, Indiana and all the other reliably red states for his first 163 electoral votes. In 2016, his road to victory ran through Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Iowa. In 2020, this path remains intact, with the addition of Georgia and Arizona.
With repeat victories in these states, plus the electoral votes in Maine and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional Districts, that brings President Trump’s tally to 260 electoral votes — just 10 votes shy of the magic number of 270.
Trump shocked the world in 2016 by becoming the first Republican presidential nominee to win Pennsylvania and Michigan since 1988. Even more incredibly, he was the first GOP presidential candidate to win Wisconsin since President Ronald Reagan’s reelection in 1984.
Pennsylvania has 20 electoral votes, Michigan has 16 and Wisconsin has 10. In this scenario, with the president sitting at 260 electoral votes, he needs to win just one of these three states to prevail.
The president is also on offense and actively campaigning in Minnesota, Nevada and New Hampshire — states he narrowly lost to Hillary Clinton in 2016. To put a fine point on it, he only lost these three states by approximately 74,000 votes combined.
If 2020 has taught us anything, it’s that anything can happen. So it’s wise to leave it all on the field, just as President Trump is doing with his ferocious campaign schedule down the stretch.
It’s no secret that in campaigns, intensity matters. It was on full display four years ago when Trump defeated Clinton and it’s evident once again less than a week before Election Day.
President Trump’s army of forgotten voters is growing in size and enthusiasm — just look at his epic rallies. While Democrats are running a fear campaign to scare people into voting against President Trump, voters going to the polls to cast a ballot for Joe Biden are few and far between.
The bottom line is that Joe “Dark Winter” Biden is an empty vessel who leaves Americans totally uninspired.
Two factors scaring Democrats are President Trump’s substantial inroads among voters in the African American and Hispanic communities. Even subtle shifts to the Trump column could be enough to reelect the president.
As President Trump crisscrosses the country fighting for four more years, he’s making a strong case about his tireless efforts to enact policies that greatly help African American and Hispanic families.
The president’s pro-growth economic policies created record-low unemployment rates among these groups. His current drive to open our economy again is creating the jobs that enable African American and Hispanic families to pay their mortgages and feed their children.
African American and Hispanic voters know full well that if Biden gets elected president, their jobs and way of life will be in jeopardy. President Trump is right when he says the cure for COVID-19 — like Biden’s support for destroying our economy with another shutdown — can’t be worse than the disease itself.
Four years ago this month we saw headlines in The Washington Post like “Donald Trump’s chances of winning are approaching zero.” This year, we’re seeing similar headlines, like this one in The New York Times: “A Biden Landslide? Some Democrats Can’t Help Whispering.”
Democrats just can’t help themselves. As Yogi Berra used to say, it’s déjà vu all over again. Polls predicting Hillary Clinton as the decisive winner in 2016 were wrong and we’re seeing that scenario play out again.
Poll results that fail to capture the hidden Trump voter come out regularly. With a radical movement on the left actively trying to “cancel” anyone or anything seen as being affiliated with President Trump, letting a pollster know your true voting intentions is a tough decision.
Personally, I think President Trump hits it out the park and gets over 400.
I think California turns red.
We're three days out and I'm officially calling my shot on both of those.
Bookmark this and check back with me on November 4, let's see how it goes, ok?