It seems that almost every day you see more and more articles saying Trump is climbing up in the polls and will win the coming November elections, and now one of the top JPMorgan strategists has announced that he believes he will win.
The time is coming, folks!
Marko Kolanovic, who is JPMorgan’s global head of macro quantitative and derivatives strategy, was correct when he said that the market would crash in March, and is betting that he is correct in thinking that Trump will win this November.
Read about about Marko Kolanovic's thoughts on the upcoming elections below:
The New York Post was one of the news outlets that broke the news early on September 1st:
President Trump is growing more likely to win a second term in November, according to a JPMorgan market guru who says investors should plan accordingly.
Violent protests against police brutality and skewed political polls have helped increase the betting odds of Trump beating Democratic nominee Joe Biden in November, according to Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan’s global head of macro quantitative and derivatives research.
“Certainly a lot can happen in the next ~60 days to change the odds, but we currently believe that momentum in favor of Trump will continue, while most investors are still positioned for a Biden win,” Kolanovic wrote in a Monday research note.
Trump has been trailing Biden in many public polls, including a Suffolk University survey released Wednesday that showed the president seven points behind.
But Kolanovic says the polls could be inflating Biden’s advantage by 5 to 6 percent because “the liberal trend of ‘cancel culture'” has made some Trump supporters less likely to be honest with pollsters.
CNBC shares more of Marko Kolanovic's thoughts:
“We currently believe that momentum in favor of Trump will continue, while the most investors are still positioned for a Biden win,” Marko Kolanovic said in a note to clients Monday. “The impact on sectors and factors (momentum vs value, cyclicals vs tech, ESG) could be dramatic and investment portfolios should adjust for a potential Trump re-election,” he added.
Marko Kolanovic, who is JPMorgan’s global head of macro quantitative and derivatives strategy, is known lately for his often prescient calls. He correctly predicted the market’s bottom in March and has been bullish on stocks since.
MarketWatch shared more on the impact Trump's re-election could have:
“COVID-19 cases rate has been declining by about ~20,000 cases/day a month,” wrote the JPMorgan researchers. “Given that there are no very large states that have yet to see widespread outbreaks that can significantly boost new cases, this will likely set the pandemic on course to subside in time for the election,” the analysts wrote.
Against that backdrop, Trump, who has hitched his wagon to the economy and the market, as key drivers of a potential second term, has seen the race tighten somewhat in recent weeks.
Over the weekend, The Hill reported that Biden’s support stood at 50% among likely voters, compared with 44% for Trump, with another 7% undecided, compared with a 10 percentage-point spread, 52% to 42%, in favor of Biden for the week ended Aug. 23, citing a survey from Morning Consult, a private data provider.