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JP Morgan Analyst Says Expect to See Trump’s Odds Surge!


If you looked at all the fake news put out by the mainstream media, you’d think Trump is 100% going to lose to Biden.

Just like he was to Hillary in 2016!

But the silent majority won’t remain quiet this election either.

And some of the elite are spreading the message that Trump is on an upward trajectory to victory!

Fox News reports that a JP Morgan analyst says Trump’s momentum will only increase as the election nears:

President Trump’s chances of securing a second term are surging in the betting markets and investors are unprepared, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

An average of betting odds compiled by RealClear Politics showed former Vice President Joe Biden’s lead shrank to 1.9 points on Sunday, down from a high of 24.6 points on Aug. 1.

“Certainly a lot can happen in the next ~60 days to change the odds, but we currently believe that momentum in favor of Trump will continue, while most investors are still positioned for a Biden win,” wrote Marko Kolanovic, quantitative strategist at JPMorgan.

He points to two factors – the violent protests that have sprung up in cities across America and a bias in the polls – as reasons why Biden’s lead has narrowed.

Kolanovic’s team looked at the academic work of Omar Wasow, who found that whether protests were deemed peaceful or violent had a major impact on the outcome of U.S. election results between 1960 and 1972. He said public opinion was swayed by how the media covered and framed the demonstrations.

American voters are sick and tired of the BLM violence endorsed by the Democrats.

USA Today says people are getting more turned off by BLM:

Democrats may have hoped that the national reckoning on race would be a favorable issue for 2020. But the street violence has overwhelmed their reform message. CNN’s Don Lemon bemoaned the fact that the rioting is “showing up in the polling” and “showing up in focus groups.” He said the “rioting has to stop” because “it is the only thing right now that is sticking."

Lemon offered no evidence to back up his claim about polls and focus groups, but other reports support it. The Civiqs tracking poll is particularly interesting for understanding the dynamics at play. Net approval for the Black Lives Matter movement peaked back on June 3 and has fallen sharply since. This was just over a week after George Floyd was killed in Minneapolis, when riots had begun to sweep major cities. Among whites, net approval is already negative and headed downward. And while Democrats and Republicans are as polarized on the issue as one would expect, white Independents have shown a dramatic falloff in BLM support, going from a net 24% in early June to net 3% now, which is lower than before Floyd was killed. Of course BLM is not synonymous with rioting, but this trend may show the extent to which the issues have been conflated in the public mind.

“Defund the police” has lost its luster as a political issue, if it ever really had any. Some cities have cut police budgets and reallocated funds to social programs, but positive buzz about this on the national level has vanished. Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has come out against defunding, while imaginatively charging that President Trump supports it. This may be a response to poor polling on the issue even among African Americans and Trump’s solid backing from police unions. Meanwhile the “defund the police” mural that was painted on 16th Street near the White House with great fanfare in June quietly vanished over two weeks ago.

And here's the JP Morgan analyst on CNBC explaining why Trump's chances of winning will only go up:


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