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LANDSLIDE INCOMING? Three Leading Models Predict BIG Trump Win In 2020!


The Dems don’t stand a chance against Trump in 2020.

That’s not just an opinion. 

It’s backed up by evidence from not one, but THREE election outcome prediction models, all of which say Trump is poised for a landslide victory into his second term.

Take a look at this huge news on Twitter:

The prediction has got Dems shaking in their boots, which is why they're so desparately trying anything they can to get Trump impeached, as if such a thing is possible. 

But hey, I guess you can't blame them. 

They've even admitted that impeachment is their only shot at getting a Dem in power in 2020.

Take a look:

CNN had the following to say about why impeachment may be the Dems' only option for a 2020 victory:

Allan Lichtman doesn't mind swimming against the political tide.

Lichtman, a professor at American University in Washington, DC, was the most prominent voice predicting Donald Trump's victory in the run-up to the 2016 election. When Trump won, it marked the 9th(!) straight presidential election where Lichtman had correctly predicted the Electoral College winner. (That's all the way back to 1984, for you math wizards.)

In short: Lichtman is someone the political world should listen to. So I reached out to him on Tuesday to see what he thought of Trump's current chances at a second term next November. 

Here's what he told me:

"Trump wins again in 2020 unless six of 13 key factors turn against him. I have no final verdict yet because much could change during the next year. Currently, the President is down only three keys: Republican losses in the midterm elections, the lack of a foreign policy success, and the president's limited appeal to voters."


Which brings me to the most intriguing -- and outside-the-box -- suggestion from my conversation with Lichtman: He believes Democrats in the House not only should be pushing to impeach Trump, but may need to in order for their nominee to win in 2020.

Again, here's Lichtman:

"Democrats are fundamentally wrong about the politics of impeachment and their prospects for victory in 2020. An impeachment and subsequent trial would cost the president a crucial fourth key -- the scandal key -- just as it cost Democrats that key in 2000. The indictment and trial would also expose him to dropping another key by encouraging a serious challenge to his re-nomination. Other potential negative keys include the emergence of a charismatic Democratic challenger, a significant third-party challenge, a foreign policy disaster, or an election-year recession. Without impeachment, however, Democratic prospects are grim."

The New York Times has more on Trump's predicted victory:

The economy invariably ranks among the top issues on the minds of voters in presidential elections. At the moment, it appears to offer President Trump a meaningful tailwind.

But how big is that tailwind? Fortunately, economists have worked hard to develop models for predicting election outcomes, and according to one of the best of these, it should be quite large.

One of the first — and perhaps still the best — of these models was created by Ray Fair, a professor at Yale. He found that the growth rates of gross domestic product and inflation have been the two most important economic predictors — but he also found that incumbency was also an important determinant of presidential election outcomes.

How well has Professor Fair’s model worked?

In short, while not perfect, the Fair model has done remarkably well. In 2008, it predicted that Barack Obama would receive 53.1 percent of the popular vote; his share actually totaled 53.7 percent. In 2012, when Mr. Obama was running for re-election, its final estimate was a vote share of 51.8 percent, just two-tenths of one percent less than what the incumbent president received. (For Mr. Obama in 2012, the power of incumbency helped offset a still-recovering economy.)


It’s worth noting that the Fair model is hardly alone in its forecast. Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, has looked at 12 models, and Mr. Trump wins in all of them. Donald Luskin of Trend Macrolytics has reached the same conclusion in his examination of the Electoral College.

The Hill also added:

Three modelers are predicting President Trump will win reelection in 2020 based on a combination of economic data and incumbent advantages, according to a column in The New York Times.

Steven Rattner wrote that Ray Fair of Yale favors Trump to win based on a model that combines incumbency and gross domestic product growth rates.

The model predicted Barack Obama’s 2008 popular vote margin within a fraction of a percentage point and got within two-tenths of a point for his 2012 vote share, Rattner, who served as a counselor to the Treasury secretary during the Obama administration, added.

Looks like Trump will most likely be continuing his mission to Make America Great Again all the way until 2025!


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