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POLL: Florida 2024 GOP Primary


In the first Florida Emerson College Polling survey of 2024, President Trump is the favorite to win the GOP Primary.

Donald Trump won the hypothetical 2024 Florida GOP Primary with 47% of the vote.

Gov. Ron DeSantis finished second with 44%.

No other candidates surpassed four percent in the poll.

When counting only confirmed candidates, the poll declares Trump the winner with 79% of the vote.

The Florida governor has yet to publicly announce if he intends to launch a presidential bid.

From Emerson College Polling:

The first Florida Emerson College Polling survey of 2024 finds 53% of voters disapprove of the job President Joe Biden is doing in office, while 40% approve. By contrast, 51% of voters approve of the job Governor Ron DeSantis is doing as Governor, while 42% disapprove.

In a hypothetical 2024 Republican Primary, former President Donald Trump leads Governor DeSantis by three points, 47% to 44%. No other candidate surpasses four percent. Among announced candidates, Trump, Nikki Haley, and Vivek Ramaswamy, Trump’s support increases to 79%, Haley to 16%, and Ramaswamy holds 6%. A majority, 69%, of DeSantis voters move to Trump if the primary were to remain between three announced candidates, while 20% would move to Haley.

Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said, “Nearly one year out from the Florida Presidential Primary, DeSantis and Trump are in a two-way race for the Republican nomination, statistically even with one another. While 90% of Republican voters approve of DeSantis, that does not translate into a firewall of support over the former President for the nomination in their home state,” Kimball said.

Similar to the 2020 Democratic primary where Joe Biden received 62% of the vote, 61% of Democrats think Joe Biden should be the nominee come 2024, while 39% think it should be someone else. When presented with a list of potential 2024 candidates, Biden holds 41% support, followed by Vice President Kamala Harris at 14%, Senator Bernie Sanders at 11%, and Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg at 8%. Fifteen percent think the nominee should be someone else.

According to Emerson College Polling, Donald Trump and Joe Biden are even at 44% in a general election, while DeSantis leads Biden 46-43%.

*Source – Emmerson College Polling*

Emerson College Polling conducted the survey amongst Florida voters from March 13-15, 2023 with a sample size of 1,153 registered voters and a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.

40% of Florida voters cited the economy or housing affordability as their primary issue for the 2024 election.


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