FiveThirtyEight is making the Fake News suppression polls look tame.
The organization claims that after aggregating the results of 40,000 election simulations, Joe Biden is the winner in 87 out of 100 simulations.
The organization knows that polls in the '16 Election Cycle were embarrassingly wrong.
But don't worry, THIS TIME you can trust 'em!
Today marks the third day of confirmation hearings for President Trump’s latest Supreme Court nominee, Amy Coney Barrett. But the hearings haven’t produced anything yet that seems likely to affect the election. Barrett has been careful not to answer questions about how she would rule on hot-button issues such as abortion and the Affordable Care Act. (Though it’s not really a mystery where she sits ideologically — she is very conservative.) Meanwhile, Trump is running out of time. Joe Biden leads by double digits in national polls, and state-level polling is only slightly closer.
Should you trust the polls this year? Yes. But we understand that many people have lingering questions after 2016, even though Trump was just a normal polling error behind Hillary Clinton. So here’s what 15 pollsters told us they’ve changed since 2016 (a lot weight by education now) and what still worries them about 2020.
Democrats are modest favorites to win the U.S. Senate. But even if they do take control of the upper chamber, they’re most likely to end up with only the slimmest of majorities. There is the chance, however, that Democrats build up a bigger Senate majority in 2020, and, as Perry Bacon Jr. wrote, that chance largely comes down to states like Kansas, Montana and Alaska, where Democratic candidates are underdogs but still have a meaningful chance of pulling off upsets.
My only question to FiveThirtyEight is have they been to a Joe Biden rally?
Neither has anyone else.