Voter enthusiasm for President Donald Trump is clearly higher than what the media would have us believe.
What about Joe Biden though?
Where are the rallies and the boat parades?
Where are the Biden signs?
Where are the enthusiastic voters?
Well, we found about 30 of them at a Latinos for Biden car “parade.”
The video footage is a bit sad really…
There is a stark contrast between Latino excitement for Joe Biden in comparison to President Trump.
Footage of Miami's Latinos for Trump caravan on Sunday
Even CNN recognizes that Biden is lagging behind with Latinos:
Part of Biden's issue no doubt is Trump's efforts to win over Hispanic voters in Florida. He's long been invested in the idea of winning over Hispanic Floridians, and it seems to be paying off.
An average of live interview non-partisan Florida polls taken since the summer gives Biden just a six-point lead with Hispanics. That's down considerably from the 21-point advantage Clinton had with them in the final pre-election polls in 2016.
You'll notice that the Biden drop off in Florida seems to be a little bit wider than nationwide. That could be a sample size issue (i.e. we have fewer Florida polls than nationally), but it could also be because of the nature of the Hispanic vote in Florida.
Cuban Americans make up around a third of Hispanic voters in Florida. They're far more Republican leaning than Hispanics as a whole nationally, and there is some evidence to suggest they've moved more to the right this election compared to other Hispanics.
If you don't believe this group can make the difference, you needn't look too far for a reminder of their voting power. In 2018, now Sen. Rick Scott won by a mere 10,000 votes (out of over 8 million) thanks to cutting Trump's 29-point deficit to 21 points in heavily Cuban Miami-Dade county. Scott easily carried the Cuban American vote.
Biden's relative weakness with Hispanic voters isn't likely to be the same game changer in Arizona, Nevada and Texas. It's not that Hispanic voters aren't as crucial in the states. It's that it's less clear they'll make as big of a difference on the election outcome. Regardless of any Hispanic issues, Biden's doing nearly 10 points better than Clinton in Arizona and Texas. Additionally, Nevada's six electoral votes makes only a difference in a few select scenarios.
Still, the Hispanic polling results have to be disappointing for Democrats. Democrats may have hoped their rapidly diversifying party and move to the left on immigration over the last decade would help them expand their advantage with Hispanics. This polling suggests that has not, for whatever reason, occurred.
Democrats should hope that the history of Hispanic voters breaking late benefits them in 2020. Nate Cohn of The New York Times noted that Hispanics were far more likely to be undecided late into the 2018 campaign. A quick look at CNN polls taken this summer shows that on average twice as many Hispanics (10%) said they were not currently planning on voting for Biden or Trump than voters overall (5%). That's a statistically significant difference.
Whether or not Biden can pick up late support from Hispanics is unclear.
President Trump says that Hispanic-Americans who came here to pursue the American dream may find it turned into an American nightmare if Biden and the democrats win.
Fox News has more on Preident Trump's warning:
President Trump sought to align Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden with the more progressive wing of the Democratic Party on Monday evening – arguing that a Biden White House would steer the United States toward socialism as he made his pitch to Latino voters in the battleground state of Arizona.
Noting that many Hispanic-Americans emigrated to the U.S from countries ruled by socialist or communist leaders – specifically mentioning Venezuela and Cuba – Trump argued that the far-left wing of the Democratic Party would use Biden to enact their policy proposals if he is elected this November.
“Many Hispanic-Americans came here to pursue the American dream,” Trump said during a roundtable event in Phoenix before claiming that the Democrats “are asking for an American nightmare of whatever you want to call it.”
“We’re not going to be another Venezuela,” Trump added. “We’re not going to let that happen to our country.”
Home to the world’s largest oil reserves, Venezuela was for decades an economic leader in the western hemisphere and, despite a massive gap between rich and poor, was a major destination for neighboring Colombians and other Latin Americans fleeing their less prosperous and more troubled homelands.
But in recent years, the country has been gripped by widespread malnutrition, disease and violence, and critics accuse strongman leader Nicolás Maduro of unfairly winning an election in 2018 for a second six-year term by banning his popular rivals from running and jailing others.
Trump’s comments come amid a sweep of western states over the last two days, where he has attempted to appeal to Latino voters in the run-up to the November 3 election. While Monday’s roundtable was billed as a “Latinos for Trump” event – and felt more like a campaign rally with a raucous and vocal crowd in attendance – the president faces an uphill battle when it comes to winning over Hispanic voters.
Latinos historically vote Democrat – with the Pew Research Center noting that 69 percent of Hispanic voters cast a ballot for Democrats in the 2018 midterm election compared to just 29 percent for Republicans – and Trump’s hardline rhetoric on immigration has isolated him from many first- and second-generation Latino voters.
This year, a record 32 million Latinos across the country will be eligible to vote, making them the largest minority electorate for the 2020 election, and, in Arizona, which is poised to be a close race between Trump and Biden, Latinos are projected to make up one-fourth of the vote, according to Pew.
During his roundtable on Monday, Trump stayed away from discussing immigration and instead focused on his administration’s economic achievements, while touting his “unwavering devotion to the Hispanic-American community.”