If you believed the national polls, you’d be thinking right now that Biden will obliderate Trump in November.
But if 2016 taught us anything, it’s that you can’t necessarily trust the national polls.
Remember how many polls gave Hillary Clinton a 99% chance of winning the election?
Sometimes, it can be a better gauge to look at state-by-state polls.
And according to a new poll, Trump holds a 19-point lead over Biden in Utah!
Here’s the Deseret News story on the matter:
Among the many questions that came into the newsroom last week were these intriguing inquiries:
Does Joe Biden have a chance to turn red Utah blue?
Is Biden’s religious foundation enough to convince Utah voters that he will balance LGBTQ rights with religious liberty concerns?
To the first question, a new Deseret News/Hinckley Institute poll would indicate it’s a steep climb. Little has changed since April, despite a nation turned upside down by COVID-19 and the economic upheaval it caused.
The results show that half of registered voters polled said they would vote for President Donald Trump if the election were held today, compared to 31% who would go with Biden. As Lisa Riley Roche reports, “only 11% said they are unsure who they’d choose,” in the poll conducted July 2-Aug. 1 of 1,000 registered Utah voters.
It shows no change from April, when the Deseret News/Hinckley poll showed 51% of Utahns said they would vote to reelect the Republican president, compared to 32% who would cast their ballot for Biden.
Check out tweets in response to the President’s performance in the polls:
And remember Nate Silver, the famous pollster?
In 2016, he warned that many of the national polls were skewing towards Clinton.
Well, according to the same model he used in 2016, Trump has the exact same chances of winning re-election as he did to be elected in 2016!
Just take look at Silver's latest tweet:
And if that's not enough to inspire confidence, billionaire Jeffrey Gundlach warned on Tuesday that the polls are wrong and if he had to bet, he would bet that Donald Trump is re-elected.
Fox News has the details on Gundlach's prediction:
Billionaire bond fund manager Jeffrey Gundlach believes the polls are wrong and that President Trump will win a second term in the White House.
“Will Joe Biden beat Donald Trump in November? I don’t think so,” Gundlach, CEO and chief investment officer of Los Angeles-based DoubleLine Capital, which has $148 billion in assets under management, said in a webcast on Tuesday evening, according to Bloomberg.
He added that a “highly toxic political environment” makes the polls “very, very squishy.”
A RealClear Politics average of national polls showed Biden, who was vice president in former President Barack Obama's administration, leading by 7.3 points on Wednesday. The margin in key battleground states that will decide the election was tighter, with Biden up 4.3 points.
While the impact of Biden choosing Sen. Kamala Harris of California as his running mate isn't yet reflected in the polls, Gundlach believes she is “a little too charismatic” and wasn’t a good choice.
A number of high-profile Republicans also criticized Biden's selection, though Democrats praised Harris and some said they looked forward to watching the veteran prosecutor debate Vice President Mike Pence.
Gundlach, who correctly predicted Trump’s 2016 win, thinks there will be “a lot of twists and turns” until Election Day as independent voters still need to decide which candidate best aligns with their views.