Remember how most of the polls predicted Hillary had over a 90% chance of winning the election?
Democrats were certainly caught with their pants down in 2016.
And according to one Democrat Representative, they may be repeating the same mistake again with the 2020 election.
Fox News reports on Demcrat Representative Elissa Slotkin’s warning that Trump voters are undercounted in polls:
Rep. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan is warning other Democrats who believe Joe Biden is the heavy favorite to win the presidential election based on recent polling.
In an interview with Politico, Slotkin expressed her skepticism about polls that show Biden holding a substantial lead over President Trump ahead of November.
“I don’t believe it,” Slotkin told Politico. “Listen, if anyone tells me they can accurately predict what major events are coming in the remainder of 2020, I’ll give them a thousand dollars. I mean, this has been the year of black swans. … I don’t for one minute think this [presidential] race is safe in anyone’s column. I’ve been literally begging people to ignore those polls. They are a snapshot in time. And if 2020 has taught us anything, it’s that we have no idea what’s coming next.”
Slotkin went even further, saying she believes that the polls are “inaccurate.”
“Here’s the thing. When I started to run and I had to hire a pollster, I interviewed a bunch of different folks and I decided to do what we do sometimes at the Pentagon, which is to take a ‘bad cop’ approach to the interview,” Slotkin explained. “It was five or six folks that I interviewed, and I said, ‘You got something wrong. You screwed up in 2016. What did you get wrong? And how are you going to fix it?’”
She noted that only one pollster, GQR’s Al Quinlan, admitted he was wrong in 2016. She ended up hiring him.
Slotkin may have a point.
Some of these polls have Biden ahead by 10 or even 15 points!
It’s no secret that most polls skew toward giving the Democrat an edge.
Just a few weeks ago, and RNC spokesperson went on a Fox News podcast and explained why the polls are wrong:
The Hill provides further details on Slotkins' warning:
Slotkin, who was part of a wave of Democrats who won races in 2018, is considered one of the more vulnerable Democrats facing reelection this November. She was one of several swing district Democrats to face scrutiny from Republicans in her district over the House's impeachment vote.
Slotkins said when she hired a pollster in 2018, she used a tactic she learned while working at the Pentagon to probe them on why they didn’t accurately predict the results of the 2016 election.
“He told me that they fundamentally undercounted the Trump vote; that the Trump voter is not a voter in every single election, that they come out for Trump, so they’re hard to count,” Slotkin said of Al Quinlan of GQR, a large Washington-based polling firm.
Surveys often count people they determine are “likely voters,” but Slotkin learned that a person who tells a pollster that they don’t have plans to vote but may ultimately do so “were fundamentally undercounted.”
“I believe that same thing is happening right now,” Slotkin said.
Here's the latest on Twitter over the representative's warning:
Make no mistake though.
Even if Trump voters are drastically undercounted in the polls, its vitally important that each and everyone of us gets out and votes to re-elect the President in November!