If you watch The Fake News or follow the polls that they shove down our throats, it would appear that President Trump is on a sinking ship.
I'd prefer to put my faith in a model that his predicted almost every election accurately since 1912.
Luckily for me, one such system happens to exist.
President Donald Trump has a 91 per cent chance of winning the November 2020 election, according to a political science professor who has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996.
“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday.
Mr Norpoth told the outlet that his model, which he curated in 1996, would have correctly predicted the outcome for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.
The model calculates the winning candidate based on early presidential nominating contests and placing an emphasis on how much enthusiasm candidates are able to generate early in the nominating process, the professor said.
“The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall,” Mr Norpoth said.
If the prediction is correct, former vice president Joe Biden is placed at a severe disadvantage due to losses in his party’s first two presidential nominating contests in Iowa and New Hampshire."
Professor Norpoth's model has only failed to accurately predict 2 Presidential elections from the past 100+ years.
One, is the election of President John F. Kennedy and the other was the election of President George W. Bush.
And that one come down to a controversial recount.
So, perhaps it only truly failed once.
For what it's worth, whenever I have searched Youtube for positive Trump media such as this, there are conspicuously few results.
Notice that this source is International.
And if this bit of hope doesn't excite you, the Professor says his model shows that Trump will not only win....but win BIGLY!
From our friends at Fox News:
Norpoth's model, which correctly predicted Trump's victory roughly nine months before the 2016 election, suggests that the president will win by even a wider margin in the electoral college with 362 electoral votes versus the 304 he earned against Hillary Clinton. Mediaite pointed out such a victory would nearly match Barack Obama's 2008 election, when he earned 365 electoral votes.
While the "Primary Model" hands Trump his reelection, national polls suggest Biden will win handily in November. The Real Clear Politics average shows the former VP besting the sitting president by 8.7 points. In the latest Fox News poll, Biden has a 12 point lead over Trump."