Experts Now Warn Virus Disappearing “Too Fast” To Develop a Vaccine

Even as states are reopening, the signs of a second wave have not yet come to fruition.

In fact, the exact opposite appears to be happening. 

Nationwide, there's a decrease in the infection rate, and this is making it more difficult for scientific researchers to develop a working vaccine.

Bloomberg confirms that researchers are having difficulty due to the slowed spread of the novel coronavirus:

The Oxford University team in charge of developing a coronavirus vaccine said a decline in the infection rate will make it increasingly difficult to prove whether it’s been successful, the Telegraph reported.

“It’s a race against the virus disappearing, and against time,” Professor Adrian Hill, director of the university’s Jenner Institute, told the newspaper. “We said earlier in the year that there was an 80% chance of developing an effective vaccine by September. But at the moment, there’s a 50% chance that we get no result at all.”

Hill said he expects fewer than 50 of the 10,000 people who have volunteered to test the vaccine trial in coming week to catch the virus. If fewer than 20 test positive, the results may be useless, the newspaper cited him as saying.

Although developers globally are working on as many as 100 experimental vaccines for Covid-19, the process is likely to take time. Finding a vaccine and distributing it globally will be a “massive moonshot,” Dr. Michael Ryan, executive of director of the World Health Organization’s Emergency Program, said earlier this month. There’s a chance the disease may be here to stay, he said.

But even worse, the vaccines being tested are not having good success rates.

While optimistic predictions say that a vaccine could be ready by the fall, the reality is looking like a vaccine might still be many months away... that is, IF there is a vaccine at all.

Fox News confirms that there's a 50% change there is no vaccine developed:

The government projected that the vaccine, if successful, could deliver 30 million doses by September. However, scientists involved with the study have given interviews with separate London-based newspapers warning that initial projections may prove to be optimistic.

The main issue, they say, is that the virus may be disappearing too fast for the studies to produce “meaningful results.”

“It is a race, yes. But it's not a race against the other guys. It's a race against the virus disappearing, and against time,” Professor Hill, 61, told the Telegraph. “But at the moment, there’s a 50 per cent chance that we get no result at all. We’re in the bizarre position of wanting Covid to stay, at least for a little while. But cases are declining."

Hill, director of the Oxford University Jenner Institute, told the Telegraph that in the second phase of testing, he might expect fewer than 50 people to catch the virus. If the total number of infected participants is below 20, then results may be useless.

This is exactly why it's critical to safely reopen our economies now!

If we remain closed until a vaccine is developed and approved, we might remain closed forever!

The number of new cases is also falling in the United Kingdom, where the trials are taking place.

In fact, researchers are appearing to suggest that they may have to "chase" COVID-19 around Britain to be able to successfully develop a vaccine.

According to Business Insider, researchers are trying to outpace the speed at which the virus is disappearing:

Scientists involved in one of the world's leading studies into finding a vaccine for the coronavirus say there is currently only a 50% chance of success because the number of people in Britain with the virus is falling too quickly.

The Oxford University mission to find a vaccine for the COVID-19 virus is in "a race against the virus disappearing, and against time," Adam Hill, director at Oxford University's Jenner Institute, said this weekend.

Hill told The Telegraph newspaper that the number of people in the UK with the virus was falling at a rate that meant it might not be possible to effectively test the experimental vaccine known as ChAdOx1 nCoV-19.

"At the moment, there's a 50% chance that we get no result at all," he said.

[...]

The trial is done by giving the vaccine to a group of participants who then mix with the population to see if they are protected from catching the virus. However, scientists are concerned that they will be unable to tell whether the vaccine has successfully protected participants if the rate of infection in the UK is too low.

Bell said that scientists might have to "chase" the virus around the nation for the vaccine trials to be successful.

"The latest figures show 634 confirmed cases in the capital in the past fortnight," Bell told the newspaper.

"In contrast, there was an increase of 163 on Friday alone in the northwest of England, taking the total in the region to 24,295 confirmed cases.

"The question is: can you chase the disease around the UK? Then there's the question about whether you chase it internationally."

Scientists at Oxford are working with global pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca Plc to produce the vaccine. It's one of several studies around the world with the aim of developing a vaccine for the COVID-19 virus.

Of course, we hope that a successful vaccine is discovered and developed!

However, if a vaccine never comes, then it will certainly call into the question the wisdom of the global shutdown.

Because until a vaccine is developed, there is virtually no change to the equation as to how the virus will effect our population.

The best we can do is take personal responsibility and practice safe social distancing.

And that's exactly what President Trump has been encouraging!