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Blue State Exodus Projected To Help GOP Gain House Seats After 2020 Census


The Blue State Exodus, which is what mass emigration out of Democrat-run states like CA and NY is becoming rapidly known as, is continuing to gain momentum.

As it does, new predictions are emerging that due to the droves of people moving out of big Blue States and into others, particularly in the South, the GOP could very well gain House seats while Democrats lose House seats following redistricting from the 2020 census.

So far, 7 states are predicted to gain congressional seats after the redistricting, 5 of which are states Trump won in 2016.

Take a look:


Here's a video that takes a deeper look into how the 2020 census could reshape the House:

The Hill gave more insight:

According to an Election Data Services analysis of the Census Bureau report, “The population projections point toward a ten [congressional] seat change over 17 states across the nation by year 2020.”

Seven states are projected to gain one or more congressional seats after the 2020 election; 10 states are projected lose one seat.

The red-state leader is Texas, with a projected pickup of three congressional seats following the 2020 census — and that after gaining four congressional seats after the 2010 election. Florida will pick up two seats, and Arizona, Colorado, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon will each gain one, according to the analysis.

All 10 losing states — Alabama, California, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and West Virginia — lose only one seat.

Of the seven states gaining seats, five voted for Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election. Of the 10 states losing seats, five voted for Trump and five for Hillary Clinton

But two of those five losing states that voted for Trump — Michigan and Pennsylvania — surprised most analysts since they have been blue-leaners for several years. And West Virginia is losing population in part because of a struggling state economy that has been so dependent on coal.

Arguably, even some of the blue-state gainers may support my general point.

If you are blue-leaning Californian who wants to escape the Golden State’s drift into madness but stay on the left coast, Oregon might be a reasonable alternative.

CBS News also said:

Population data collected from the 2020 census could lead to dramatic changes in how congressional seats and Electoral College votes are apportioned in several states. Ten states, including several in the Northeast and Midwest, are set to lose congressional districts, although seven in the West and South could gain seats, according to an analysis of new Census Bureau data.

The results of the census will be used to determine how 435 seats in the House seats are apportioned for the next 10 years. This impacts a state's political power in Congress and importance in presidential elections, as Electoral College votes are determined by the size of a state's congressional delegation. The reapportionment is expected in December 2020, resulting in the lengthy process of each state redrawing congressional maps for the 2022 midterm elections.

The Census Bureau released its final population estimates ahead of next year's census in a report on Monday. An analysis of the figures by the consulting group Election Data Services shows the 10 states set to lose a congressional district:

  • Alabama
  • California
  • Illinois
  • Michigan
  • Minnesota
  • New York
  • Ohio
  • Pennsylvania
  • Rhode Island
  • West Virginia

Among the seven states set to gain seats, Texas and Florida are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries, gaining at least three and two congressional districts respectively. That would give Texas the second-largest number of congressional districts and electoral votes in the country, behind California.


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