New Poll Spells Trouble For Dems: Voters In Key Swing States Backing TRUMP Over Pelosi

Here are more details, from the Washington Examiner:

Voters in congressional districts that President Trump won in 2016 but flipped Democratic last November support his border wall and believe Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi should have accepted his immigration deal to end the partial government shutdown.

A poll of 10 representative districts, some of which Trump won by a big margin but then voted a Democrat into office in 2018, also found that a plurality approve of the president’s job performance, 49 percent to 48 percent. 

The Public Opinion Strategies survey done for the Republican National Committee provided some hope for the president and GOP messaging on the border wall. 

What’s more, the survey provided to Secrets found that voters in districts in New York, Minnesota, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Maine, Virginia and New Jersey believe that Trump’s immigration compromise dismissed by Pelosi should have been accepted in the shutdown struggle. 

And it found that more voters believe Trump "has been more open to compromise on this issue than congressional Democrats."

It tested several border messages, for example on costs, support from border agents, and the national security threat illegal immigration poses. “After they hear this series of statements, voters in these DEM-held congressional districts move toward supporting the president’s border barrier as they shift away from Pelosi,” said the survey analysis. 

The highlights directly from the poll: 

• A plurality of voters in these districts approve of President Trump’s job performance (49%-48%), including an overwhelming majority of Republican voters (87%-11%).
• A majority of voters (54%-43%) say they support Trump’s policies.
• By a 61%-35% margin, voters support the president’s position on border security.
• By a 53%-43% margin, voters in these DEM-held congressional districts support “building a border wall or barrier to improve security between the U.S. and Mexico.”
• A majority of voters (50%-43%) believe that Democrats should have accepted Trump’s offer of three years of protection for dreamers in exchange for $5.7 billion in funding a border wall.
• By a 41%-34% margin, voters say Trump has been “more open to compromise on this issue” than congressional Democrats.
• After voters hear more about the need for a wall or barrier to improve national security, they move toward the president’s stance and away from Speaker Pelosi’s position.

More details, from Politico:

KEY FINDINGS

• ▪  Voters in these DEM-held congressional districts approve of the President’s job performance and support his policies, especially on border security.
  • -  A plurality of voters in these districts approve of President Trump’s job performance
    (49%-48%), including an overwhelming majority of Republican voters (87%-11%);
  • -  A majority of voters (54%-43%) say they support Donald Trump’s policies;
  • -  And, by a 61%-35% margin, voters support the President’s position on border security.
  • -  By way of comparison, the average approval score for the Democratic Members of
    Congress in these districts is 35%-20%.
• ▪  Voters believe the current situation at the border represents a national security threat and a majority support building a wall or barrier.
  • -  Fully 52% of voters agree that “the current situation at the border between the United
    States and Mexico represents a national security threat to the US.”
  • -  By a 53%-43% margin, voters in these DEM-held congressional districts support
    “building a border wall or barrier to improve security between the US and Mexico.”
• ▪  Voters believe that Congressional Democrats should have accepted Trump’s DACAproposal. And, a plurality of voters in these DEM-held districts say the President has been more open to compromise than Congressional Democrats.
  • -  A majority of voters (50%-43%) believe that Democrats should have accepted Trump’s
    offer of three years of protection for dreamers in exchange for $5.7 billion in funding a
    border wall.
  • -  By a 41%-34% margin, voters say President Trump has been “more open to compromise
    on this issue” than Congressional Democrats.

 ▪ After voters hear more about the need for a wall or barrier to improve national security,they move toward the President’s stance and away from Speaker Pelosi’s position.
In fact, the messages related to the past success of the border wall seem to resonate the best – especially the information about the effectiveness of the wall between Juarez and El Paso – which is new information to these voters.

Read the full report here.

These results are consistent with the NBC/WSJ poll that came out recently showing that Trump fared much better in public opinion than did Nancy Pelosi during the shutdown.

From The Hill:

A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows that Speaker Nancy Pelosi— not President Donald Trump — plummeted most in popularity during the 35-day government shutdown.

The new poll shows the Speaker of the House experienced a 6-point drop in her approval rating. Only 28 percent of Americans rated Pelosi as favorable, while 47 percent rated her as unfavorable — a stunning 19 percent “upside down” unfavorable figure.

The Wall Street Journal reports that while voters in their poll did hold him responsible for the shutdown, Trump is down only 3 percent total since November, when the midterm elections were held. Hardly the roundhouse kick to the head that it could have been, given the bad mainstream press.

Trump’s overall 43-percent approval rating is, according to Gallup Poll, roughly on par with President Barack Obama’s 49 approval rating during the same week just two years into his presidency.

This comes after a Rasmussen Poll also showed that 40 percent of Americans actually blamed congressional Democrats for the shutdown.

So, with steady poll numbers for himself and spiraling poll numbers for Pelosi, why on earth did Trump cave in just three weeks into her reign?

NATIONAL POLL: Do You Still Have Trump's Back 100%?

First, Trump appears to have been spooked by an air traffic controllers’ “sick-out” and subsequent ground-control stops at LaGuardia Airport.

However, a look back at President Ronald Reagan’s handling of a similar situation demonstrates that the issue could have been resolved if Trump had wanted to tackle it. In Reagan’s case, he fired more than 11,000 air traffic controllers and enacted a lifetime rehiring ban on any controller who called out sick. A federal judge ultimately found the air traffic controllers’ union president in contempt of court, and ordered him to pay a fine. All things Trump could have weathered, given the precedent.

Second, another possible reason for the sudden retreat is that Trump’s top adviser and son-in-law Jared Kushner has reportedly been meetingbehind-the-scenes with immigration activists, while “angel moms” weren’t welcomed in Pelosi’s office.

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