Fox News famously says “We Report, You Decide”.
That’s all I’m doing here, reporting something I just saw on CNBC, courtesy of an NBC/WSJ poll.
I know, I know….the exact same polls that were DEAD WRONG throughout the 2016 election!
But, it’s important to know what’s being reported.
And let me give you this warning: no matter WHAT the polls or the news says, you HAVE TO get out and vote! Vote early or vote on November 6, but do not sit this one out!
I don’t care if you’re sick, or busy at work, or problems at home….you get your butt to the voting booth and (if you’re so inclined) vote RED!
I expect a lot of noise like this between now and the election, so just remember to filter it all out and whether it looks like the Republicans are up big or down big, you get out and vote!
Here's the report, from CNBC:
President Donald Trump has turned one familiar feature of mid-term election campaigns inside out: Democrats are now more likely to vote than Republicans.
That remarkable finding emerges from the new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll just two weeks before Election Day. As the president's job approval rose to an all-time high of 47 percent, Republicans narrowed their double-digit September deficit for control of Congress to seven percentage points among all registered voters.
But among the smaller group considered likely voters, the Democratic advantage grows to nine points, 50 percent to 41 percent.
"It's something I've never seen before," said Bill McInturff, the veteran Republican pollster who conducts the NBC/WSJ survey with Democratic counterpart Peter Hart. "The likely voter model tips toward the Democrats."
That signals a break, at least temporarily, in recent mid-term pattern of Democratic candidates suffering from sub-par turnout among sympathetic constituencies, especially Latinos and younger voters. In October 2010, just before Republicans recaptured the House, and 2014, the electorate became more Republican as the universe of those registered was winnowed to likely voters.
In the 2018 homestretch, rising interest among millenials, Latinos and women alienated by Trump has flipped the script. Compared to four years ago, interest has surged more than twenty percentage points among younger women and women with college degrees.
The emotion-fueled campaign season has galvanized Democrats and Republicans alike, presaging high turnout overall. The war over Supreme Court justice Brett Kavanaugh accelerated partisan mobilization already underway in fierce battles for pivotal House and Senate seats.
Fully 65 percent of all voters express high interest in the battle for Congress, exceeding pre-election levels in 2006, 2010, and 2014. But the poll showed interest slightly higher among Democrats than Republicans, among those who backed Hillary Clinton in 2016 than Trump voters, among women than men, among non-whites than whites.
The telephone survey of 900 registered voters, conducted Oct. 14-17, has a margin for error of 3.27 percentage points. For the 645 respondents deemed likely voters, the margin for error is 3.86 percentage points.
Projecting who will actually vote is hardly an exact science. NBC/WSJ pollsters combine information about respondents' stated interest, age and past voting behavior to create a model of the likely electorate.
Recent shifts may have narrowed the range of potential Democratic House gains. The poll shows Republicans have restored a 14 percentage point edge in districts they already control, up from just two points in August.
That also signals brighter GOP prospects in key Senate contests, which take place mostly in Trump-friendly states. In House districts they currently hold, Democrats lead by 29 points, up from 25 in August.
What propels the overall Democratic edge is a widening Trump-era gender gap. Men back Republicans for Congress by 14 points, up slightly from 11 points four years ago.
Yet women's preference for Democrats has more than doubled to 25 points. White women with college degrees, who split evenly in 2014, now favor Democrats by 61 percent to 28 percent - better than two to one.
Let me tell you something.
I've been watching all of Trump's recent rallies, and he does not look to me like someone who thinks he's going to lose.
He looks confident. Almost supremely confident.
He also looks to me like someone who has an ace up his sleeve, the goods on the Deep State perhaps? And just waiting for the right time to activate Sessions? We will see.
The last thing I've noticed is that I think these campaign rallies are about more than just rallying the vote. I think they're about putting on a public show to all the nation showing how he is drawing thousands upon thousands of people at each event. In the case of Houston on Monday, 77,800 tickets have been issued at last count, and that number will likely grow even larger by Monday.
It's exactly what Trump did in 2016. To combat any possible voter fraud or interference, he put on a public display showing massive support all over the country. Had the actual votes not lined up with what we were seeing with our very eyes, Americans would have sniffed it out.
Take a look at my favorite moment from the Nevada rally and tell me how awesome this man is!