Trump STILL Has a 91 Percent Chance at Winning Re-Election, Says Professor Who Predicted 25 of 27 Elections

Who exactly is Helmut Norpoth?

He's a political science professor at Stony Brook, who developed a model that has accurately predicted 25 out of 27 presidential elections since 1912.

How does Norpoth's model work?

Newsweek has more details:

Despite a number of poll numbers that predict Donald Trump will lose his reelection bid, one political scientist says the president has a good chance of winning a second term.

Helmut Norpoth, a political science professor at Stony Brook University--who forecasted Trump's 2016 win eight months ahead of the election and has accurately predicted 25 out of 27 elections--said on Fox News' The Ingraham Angle that Trump's reelection chances are above 90 percent.

"The key to the November election is the primaries," Norpoth said, adding Trump won Republican primaries quite easily while presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden had difficulty winning delegates. "On balance, a stronger performance in primaries gives Donald Trump the edge in November."

Norpoth cited Biden's fourth-place finish in the Iowa caucus and his fifth-place finish in the New Hampshire primary as among his reasons for his forecast.

"The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall," Norpoth told Mediaite. "The list is long and discouraging for early front runners. Beginning with Thomas Dewey in 1948, it spans such notables as Richard Nixon in 1960, Jimmy Carter in 1980, Michael Dukakis in 1988, George H.W. Bush in 1992, and John Kerry in 2004, to cite just the most spectacular cases."

In the weeks leading up to the 2016 electron, Trump trailed former Democratic presidential nominee Hilary Clinton in nearly every poll and still won the presidency.

The polls have read much the same way in 2020. According to RealClearPolitics, a number of polls have forecasted that Trump will be a one-term president and giving Biden a slight lead heading into the November election.

The Hill/HarrisX national poll released on Wednesday has Biden leading by 4 percent over Trump, while an Economist/YouGov survey gives Biden a lead at 49 percent to Trump's 40 percent.

However, Norpoth said the COVID-19 pandemic that has gripped the U.S. and the world and led to a near-economic meltdown, could swing the election to Biden if Trump's approval rating drops significantly.

Much of 2020 has been focused on George Floyd, civil unrest, and the COVID-19 pandemic.

However, the closer we get to election day, the more that people will be focused on the issues at hand.

Now, people might be happy bashing President Trump, but they will have to seriously consider the alternative: Sleepy Joe Biden.

This is why Norpoth is DOUBLING DOWN and claiming Trump still has a 91 percent chance at winning reelection.

A lot of controversy has surrounded polling itself.

Some conservatives claim that Democrats are being over-sampled, which is why the polls are favoring Biden.

The sampling is based on the pollsters prediction on who will show up on election day.

Norpoth's prediction isn't based on polling.

Rather, he bases it on the results seen during the presidential primaries. 

These are more accurate than polls, because they are the results of actual elections.

Fox News confirms:

Despite recent polls that identify Joe Biden as the heavy favorite in 2020, a political science professor is still standing by his prediction model that shows President Trump having a "91 percent" chance of winning in November.

Mediaite reported on Wednesday that Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth is doubling down on his "Primary Model,” which has correctly predicted five out of the past six elections since 1996 and every single election but two in the past 108 years.

“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Norpoth said. "This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced."

As Mediaite noted, the two elections the model failed to predict were the 1960 election of John F. Kennedy and the 2000 election of George W. Bush.

Norpoth's model examines the results of presidential primaries as the strongest indicator as to the outcome in the general election, not the polls that dominate the political discussion. According to Norpoth, Biden is in a much weaker position than Trump because of his poor showing in the first two primary races.

Before making the stunning comeback in the South Carolina primary and carrying the following races, Biden came in fourth place in Iowa with just 15.8 percent of the vote and came in fifth place in New Hampshire with just 8.4 percent. Norpoth stressed that enthusiasm is key.

“The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall,” Norpoth told Mediaite. “The list is long and discouraging for early frontrunners. Beginning with Thomas Dewey in 1948, it spans such notables as Richard Nixon in 1960, Jimmy Carter in 1980, Michael Dukakis in 1988, George H.W. Bush in 1992, and John Kerry in 2004, to cite just the most spectacular cases."

Norpoth's model, which correctly predicted Trump's victory roughly nine months before the 2016 election, suggests that the president will win by even a wider margin in the electoral college with 362 electoral votes versus the 304 he earned against Hillary Clinton. Mediaite pointed out such a victory would nearly match Barack Obama's 2008 election, when he earned 365 electoral votes.

So if you're feeling down...

Or if the media headlines are bothering you...

Just know that one of the most accurate election forecasters is still giving President Trump a HUGE advantage leading into November!