IOWA POLL: Joe Biden Drops To 2nd Place

CNN has more details on Biden's drop in the Iowa poll:

A surging Sen. Elizabeth Warren is challenging Joe Biden's dominance in the race for the Democratic nomination, standing at 22% to the former vice president's 20% in a new CNN/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of likely Iowa caucusgoers. 

Although neither candidate holds a clear lead at this point, the new poll finds Warren and Biden well ahead of other contenders for the Democratic nomination. Sen. Bernie Sanders' support has dipped to 11% in this poll, with South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 9% and Sen. Kamala Harris at 6%. Sens. Cory Booker and Amy Klobuchar each land at 3%, while Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, former Rep. Beto O'Rourke, investor Tom Steyer and businessman Andrew Yang each have the backing of 2% of likely caucusgoers. The poll marks Gabbard's third qualifying poll for inclusion in October's Democratic debates. The rest of the field each notched 1% or less.

Warren's improved standing overall in the Iowa poll comes on the heels of a stronger showing in recent national polls and is bolstered by an increasing positive favorability rating (75% have a favorable view, the best in the field, and she is one of only four candidates who have improved their net favorability since the June CNN/DMR poll), as well as a growing percentage of likely caucusgoers who say she is either their first choice, second choice or someone they are actively considering. All told, 71% are at least considering Warren's candidacy, ahead of the next best candidate on that score by 11 points (Biden at 60%). Her supporters are also more enthusiastic than those behind Biden (32% of her backers are extremely enthusiastic vs. 22% for the former vice president).

The Massachusetts senator appears to be gaining ground primarily at the expense of Sanders. She holds the support of 32% of those who say they caucused for Sanders in 2016 (Sanders himself stands at 25% among that group), stands at 48% among those who consider themselves "very liberal," and for the first time in CNN/DMR polling on the race, has edged ahead of Sanders among those under age 35 (27% back Warren, 22% Sanders).

Biden's core backers remain behind him in largely the same way they were in the previous poll. Among seniors, he is the first choice of 35%, about the same as earlier this year. And he remains above 30% support with moderate and conservative likely caucusgoers.

And Warren's supporters are a bit less apt to be locked in than are those backing Biden (12% of Warren supporters say their mind is made up vs. 26% of Biden's supporters). Overall, though, just 20% of likely caucusgoers say their mind is made up now, suggesting there is plenty of room for these preferences to shift before February.

The New York Times also said:

Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts is the new Iowa polling leader, narrowly in first place ahead of former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., according to a new poll of the state from The Des Moines Register and CNN.

The poll showed that Ms. Warren was the first choice for 22 percent of would-be Democratic caucusgoers, a significant increase from the 15 percent support she held in June, when The Register last polled the state. Mr. Biden dropped from a first-place June showing of 24 percent to 20 percent. The result left the two in a statistical tie, well ahead of the rest of the pack.

The poll is the latest evidence of Ms. Warren’s political rise in the 2020 race. Alone among the 2020 candidates, her campaign stops have become bona fide events, with 20,000 people attending a speech in Manhattan this week and 2,000 turning out in Iowa City on Thursday night.

Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont placed third with 11 percent, the second consecutive poll from The Register in which his campaign has seen precipitous decreases in support. Mr. Sanders, who placed in a statistical tie with Hillary Clinton in the state’s 2016 contest, had 25 percent support in the paper’s March poll and 16 percent support in June. 

Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind., placed fourth in The Register’s poll, with 9 percent. He had 14 percent in The Register’s June poll and has fallen in other surveys of the state since then before launching a television advertising campaign here after Labor Day.

The gains by Ms. Warren come largely at the expense of Mr. Sanders. His polling drop-off comes as his campaign has reordered staff in early nominating states in an effort to reboot his campaign. 

Now might be a good time to remind you that President Trump has already promised to destroy Elizabeth Warren on the debate stage if she reaches that point! 

If Warren gets that far, Trump will have plenty of material to use against her, especially now that we've found out Warren is actually a descendant of fighters AGAINST Native Americans, not Native Americans like she said to get a leg up in college and her career.

What do you think?

Will we be seeing Trump and Warren go head-to-head?