Fast forward now to 2019.

Just five days ago, CNN ran an article with this headline:

Afghanistan may be a mess if US troops leave; they should leave anyway. Trump is right.

And now today comes news that a peace framework has been reached.

Stunning!

From the BBC:

US and Taliban negotiators have agreed on a draft framework for a peace deal seeking to put an end to the 17-year conflict in Afghanistan, Washington's top negotiator has said.

US negotiators held six days of talks with the Taliban in Qatar last week. 

The Afghan president has made a new call for direct talks with the Islamist group, but they have so far refused, dismissing the government as "puppets".

The group ruled the country from 1996-2001 and remain a top insurgent force.

Their rule ended when the US invaded Afghanistan after al-Qaeda - which had used the country as a base - carried out the 9/11 attacks in the US.

Analysts say it could be years before a substantive peace deal is reached.

Zalmay Khalilzad, the US Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation, was in Kabul to brief the Afghan government about the talks. 

Media captionAuliya Atrafi went to Helmand Province where the Taliban are most active

"We have a draft of the framework that has to be fleshed out before it becomes an agreement," he told The New York Times in an interview, adding that as part of the proposed deal the Taliban would vow to prevent Afghanistan being used as a hub for terrorism.

• Is Afghanistan's 17-year war coming to an end?
• Why Afghanistan is more dangerous than ever
• Who are the Taliban?

The Trump administration's strategy has been to put pressure on the Taliban to negotiate with the Afghan government.

It is exploring a full withdrawal of US troops - in return for a ceasefire and a commitment by the Taliban to these direct talks.

The Taliban say they will only begin negotiations with the government once a firm date for troop withdrawal has been agreed.

The 17-year conflict has caused huge loss of life. According to UN figures, between 6,000 and 11,000 civilians have been killed every year since 2009.

And from CNN:

Officials from the United States and the Taliban have agreed in principle to a framework that could eventually bring Afghanistan's long-running war to an end, the US Special Representative for Afghanistan said Monday. 

In comments given to the New York Times and confirmed to CNN by the US Embassy in Kabul, Zalmay Khalilzad said the framework for peace would see the insurgent group vow to prevent the country from being used as a hub for terrorism in return for a US military withdrawal.

"We have a draft of the framework that has to be fleshed out before it becomes an agreement," Khalilzad told the Times on Monday. "The Taliban have committed, to our satisfaction, to do what is necessary that would prevent Afghanistan from ever becoming a platform for international terrorist groups or individuals."

The peace negotiations in Doha, Qatar had previously been described on Saturday by Khalilzad as "more productive than they have been in the past," signaling the first significant shift in the geopolitical stalemate in years. But he added that "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed."

The sides are working on a ceasefire that would lead to a sequenced agreement for dialogue, initially between US and the Taliban and then between the Taliban and Afghan government, a source with knowledge of the talks told CNN last week. 

An Afghan source close to the negotiations told CNN on Monday that while a ceasefire and US withdrawal were both discussed, neither side came to final conclusions.

The source said the Taliban will not agree to a ceasefire without the US committing to a full troop withdrawal, but the Americans want any withdrawal to be conditional on the ceasefire holding. The Taliban are skeptical that the US will actually pull out if the ceasefire holds. 

The source added that the US wouldn't announce any plans for a troop withdrawal without the Taliban entering into discussions with the Afghan government. Khalilzad will stay in a Kabul for more talks with the Afghan government Monday, and there are discussions that Khalilzad may go back to Afghanistan in early February ahead of the next round of talks later that month.

Acting Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan told reporters Monday that the US talks with the Taliban are "encouraging," but when asked if he had been "tasked to be prepared for a full withdrawal," he replied, "I have not."

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